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Warning – It is all about to change – Windows 8

28 Sep

Here is my new opinion piece on the preview of Windows 8.

Please check out the 15 minute video presentation on SlideShare here:

Feedback is always welcome and expected, so let me know what you think.
Mike
More to come…
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7 Comments

Posted by on September 28, 2011 in Opinion, Technology

 

Tags: , , ,

7 responses to “Warning – It is all about to change – Windows 8

  1. Michael Thuma

    October 6, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    Ooooh Mr. Mike!

    Something I would sign – Tablets/Touch/Gestures – technologies available for a long time now. Yes Windows exists on other platforms too Windows Compact for example – Embedded Windows. This was not pushed a lot … but there are solutions (ARM, MIPS … support). This is nothing new – Windows is already there, MS does not start not start from 0.

    It is a rewrite … sounds strange but if we would not have an idea about the max speed on the micro computer within a time span of 10 years (10 to 20 times faster possible) it would be a good opportunity for rocket scientists, so it is more a game for the corporates that already have setup their structures and learned the lessons in the past. The moment a company has an idea about the corridor a product can be sold within they have the more efficient sales machinery. So the 2 from garage have bad cards, otherwise it could be a new write. From this perspective Metro is an opportunity a lot more for existing Software but less. We will see in how far this will be an opportunity for starters, because the Web already evolved beyond putting a server to the Internet and believe to make money although if it is a clever solution simplifying business processes.

    IT grew into a separated industry this is the shift you talked about – this is the paradigm shift finally. Then it will not the way, the customers decide what they choose for from an applications concept perspective.
    The service business will very likely decease again and some portions will move ‘up’ to a consultancy. -> This is one important driver I think, but still not recognized.
    All the cloud solutions free the consultant from knowing a lot about IT – for example SAP By Design. This is not the only example but a good one where most resistance is still expected. Companies can maybe run in the future a ByDesign in house but in fashion of a Hybrid cloud solution partially on premise but this is not even considered.

    Today the Cloud ERP solutions at a market share of 1,5 % from the overall hosted solutions perspective – are not big but if the price is right and 90USD per seat at 10 seats starts to work … CRM is leading, because in the Windows world the resistance vs. another huge application was very strong. The current products have to many redundancies concerning the functionallity.

    I still think selling a product unlimited users but limited artifacts is a bigger opportunity.

    Especially SME. They do benefit enormous from making use of Clouds potentials. Clouds are competing Silos you showed this they have been invented this way.

    The Clouds are the door opener for new 2 people sit in the garage and grow from this into something different … In this case it’s a rewrite in fashion of new write. For the existing products the just rewrite is not the best because no one will pay for something that runs on Metro just because it runs on Metro.

    The idea of the Web desktop is definitely dead. I know people still believe the world will end 2015 in browsers but I doubt if you take away a human the desk they could work. Web is still hypertext it is the best hypertext ever invented and perfect for documents presented a different way and can be used very good for collaboration but this was possible with plain HTML in the 90s too. Take people the fear that a desktop application is not available tomorrow, meaning take naked replacement device and you will see how fast people will start to dislike web applications – this is the opportunity for the Tables/Pads.

    OS Marektshare, mhhhh. Windows is loosing this is out of doubt but compared to what. The huge number of XP machines just tells considering the increase of Win7 that devices are replaced and OS is not upgraded in the general case there is no run anymore on a new Windows without buying a new computer. This leaves the impression that 2 billion devices are not the real target a lot less I think (target has been overestimated by Gartner – that’s all) – this does not make Windows smaller … or less attractive. On the other hand means companies have 10 years time for the rewrite to finish or at least think they would have….

     
    • techmana

      October 6, 2011 at 2:25 pm

      Mike, sorry I have to disagree with you on this. Windows 8 is not a rewrite and it is not a repackage. It appears that MS is going to give the closest clone to iOS and the other stuff will be considered legacy. The .NET framework / Platform / Approach, is just to heavy for light-battery devices, that is why many of the platforms you discuss or state, MS has already abandoned a long time ago, just like they abandoned CF/CF.NET. As it appears today, it does not look like existing Silverlight technologies are moving forward and is gone, so the current Windows 7 Phone is on a new path.

      As for the hardware I think that Apple’s vision of semi-powerful and fully optimized hardware (much like the iPad) in hand (smartphone or tablet) with access to the net for remote and on-demand storage is where MS is also going, they have a strong Cloud offering and take a look at MS’s Live Mesh, it is an interesting response to remote storage: http://explore.live.com/windows-live-mesh-devices-sync-upgrade-ui/

      Desktop is not dead and won’t be for a while, but Laptops could have a much shorter existence as we know them today.

      MS has not lost that much and Office still owns 94% of the productivity market, period. As long as MS keeps that market share, nothing else really matters and if the new office can be presented as a LEAP forward in a smartphone/tablet design approach with Metro that is enough to make the MASSIVE amount of OS users upgrade.

      That is just my opinion,

      Mike

       
  2. Michael Thuma

    October 6, 2011 at 1:50 pm

    On my decease of the service business – infrastructure related – mobile human moves physically to site with a self serviced on premise C/S solution. Not the service business in general…

     
  3. Michael Thuma

    October 7, 2011 at 10:15 am

    Oh no, Windows 8 is not a rewrite, you talked about the Software running on it … the Software running on Windows will have to be rewritten. I was more thinking of 2 things
    a) What is the opportunity for the newcomer?
    b) What is the cost for those who will have to provide the Software?

    You got me wrong. I don’t worry about Microsoft … they are too rich.

    I think you draw a realistic picture. My response was more about the question you asked, will the ECO system do this shift. I have the impression specially in case of a) a combination of cloud + desktop software is almost inevitable at the moment. On a mid/long term a change in the service model and an opportunity to evolve into a consulting business. These I think are the two factor that enable new people to enter the scene. You pointed out Windows is not a fun OS or not seen as one.

    Thank you for the answer. My question is then, is the step with Metro this fundamental so that we could say it is a new way more or less current technologies stay the way they are and everything Metro? This is not clear to me. At moment we know, cloud + ‘desktop’ app can is an option for multimedia apps, you although can specify in the device’s configuration, when it is attached which additional Software can be downloaded … (very likely required for tables/PADs).

    I thought that .net is to heavyweight for mobiles … this is why I am uncertain if MS will evolve Metro they way they did with .net over the last decade and maybe provide an extended and more complete ‘native’ runtime environment + libraries.

    Mike

     
  4. Michael Thuma

    October 7, 2011 at 10:41 am

    Or little more precise. Will WinRT something like WinXX in the end a complete runtime environment with nothing missing to build end user apps, maybe CAD systems too. I can imagine that the current marekting focus is still on the points seen as a certain backlog demand. For me it makes sense to know, I think for others too, did MS say anything concrete who sustain this evolution will become. You pointed it out – you feel it is really a future way to develop almost every Windows application.

     
  5. techmana

    October 7, 2011 at 2:43 pm

    Mike,

    I believe that by reading various things about WinRT and comments from MS people that the new WinRT is the new way forward.

    Check out: http://www.readwriteweb.com/hack/2011/09/build-2011-what-is-winrt-and-i.php

    It appears the new WinRunTime (WinRT) is at this point not cross-plat as Silverlight and there will be support for “existing or legacy” applications for now. It also appears that MS is trying to get people to move to a new approach, which as I stated I believe is because .NET is to heavy and to resource intensive for portable smart devices (phones, tablets, other) and that they need a lighter way.

    If history is any guide to the future with technology, I see the presentation layer and some processing staying on the client. I think you would have to agree that the amount of JavaScript we are now pushing to most Rich Internet Applications (RIA) clients is doing a lot of processing on the front end from the browser. It appears that MS is going down that path (making JavaScript) a native interface even stronger: http://www.readwriteweb.com/hack/2011/09/sencha-likes-ie10-a-native-app.php

    So IMO, here MS is with a very heavy framework, .NET that is resource intensive, interpreted (possibly slower) and HUGE. They want to create “smart” applications with a lighter weight approach HTML(5.0)/JavaScript/CSS and the road from .NET is not really there. IMO, they have to make a bold move to mimic the iOS approach and offer a lighter and less resource intensive approach to client applications. Again, they own the productivity suite as of this time, 94% and over the past few years even with Open Office, Google, and MS Live… MS still enjoys a 94% hold… if they move people to Metro through Office, they move the world to Metro. If you are staying with Office why would you move away from MS and as time goes on and bad things happen in HTML and JavaScript, which it is only a matter of time, MS will be a stable, reliable, and friendly approach to support your existing applications.

    Mike

     
  6. Michael Thuma

    October 9, 2011 at 5:11 am

    Thank you very much … I was insisting little, because the new to move Office to Metro was definitely new to me. This makes a difference.

    At least Metro and WinRT will broaden the field of application for Windows. There is still huge potential for ‘thin-client’ better said smart front-end solution. This is true. In this world exist so many devices that already fit into maybe application hosted in a centralistic fashion but there is a price on the market for the solution and all parts together at the moment are too expensive and I hope that a lighter API will allow more applications and increase the demand for such lower energy and with this silent (Flash drives are one step) but Windows for ‘plastic’ boxes similar to the enclosures of SOHO routers would be an enabler.

    It was interesting to read that WinRT compared to Silverlight is not intended to come shipped with restricted functionality.

    Thank you very much Info!

     

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